The Dream
Death-defying screams of joy escaped the lips of Egyptians when Hosni Mobarak was removed without any blood spilled, on February 11th of this year. Blasting a revolutionary hole through the darkness, the Egyptian simple man showed his revulsion against a corrupt ruling party.
For an eternity, dark clouds hung above and a fog shrouded the people, so that the sudden appearance of the sun blinded us. Lack of perception and discernment can often be the death knell of nascent revolutions. Had logic danced with passion, the helm of stewardship would have never been entrusted to the very military that dictated terms to the Egyptian street since 1952.
Yet, many jumped for joy of triumph, while some knelt to the ground thanking the Maker; as others sobbed while Vice President Oman Soleiman spoke words that changed a nation: "Due to the current circumstances President Mubarak has relinquished power!" On the other hand fear grew in some, wondering if the Army might pull the oldest three-card monte in history, replacing one vicious oppressive dictator with another!
Revolutionary Storm Be Brewin'
To understand why Egyptian revolutionaries accepted Army rule, one must start at the beginning. By the 25th of January, police and Central Security Forces remained in violent preemptive control over the city streets. Brainwashed by corrupt officials, these men treated their brethren, the opposition, as traitors. Violence included blasting with water cannons, rubber bullets, tear gas and live bullets. Adding to this combustible circumstance, armored cars deliberately plowed over demonstrators. Television shows broadcast over satellite displayed under-cover agents stealing SUVs from embassies to run over protestors. This organized mayhem, intended to obliterate voices of dissent needed cleansing and the people's cries of, "We need the Army," began to be voiced.
Time for Guns?
Conspiracy theorists argue that this outcome was planned all along citing that Mubarak was a son of the Army and a pilot in the 1973 war against Israel. Yet others believe that the toothless tiger meant to turn the Egyptian Armed Forces against their own citizens, in a selfish last attempt at holding onto the proverbial throne.
Numerous intellectuals, analysts and sources in the Army stated an order was given to Tantawi, the Supreme Leader of the Armed Forces to assault the unarmed masses in Tahrir Square with live ammo. The answer was definitive refusal. Cowardly withdrawal of police forces was meant to instill chaos. This coupled with government organization of thousands of prisoner escapes projected a violent chaotic situation.
By refusing to side with the regime, the Army tipped the balance of power overnight.
Mixed Signals
In a palace overlooking the pristine turquoise heaven of the Red Sea, holes up the former dictator, while unimpeded, his sons roam the halls of power, albeit in unofficial capacities. While some of his Aides rot in jails, Mubarak and his family who plundered Egyptian coffers for thirty years, still roam free.
A decree released by the Supreme Council of the Army stated that while supporting the "will of the people", they also salute the former President for services rendered to his country. This statement infuriated thinkers and revolutionaries alike. Since the main argument was always that he failed in the most egregious manner to serve his country, leaving it in this corrupt and bankrupt shambles. This man who plundered the treasury, received kick-backs on arms deals and behaved like a criminal, remains safe in a six-star hospital, untouched and supported by the armed services, who are still loyalists.
This abominable loyalty to the former president thug enrages the man on the street and fails to assuage fears that the military is in solidarity with an unwanted ruler. Indeed, it is perceived as one of multiple betrayals of the revolution.
Follow the Money
Finally and arguably wealth is the most worrisome of issues. Not the money the thieving Mubarak and his cronies siphoned. But economists in the Wall Street Journal and The Guardian estimate that the Army holds as much as 25% of the entire Egyptian wealth. No one needs an MBA from the London School of Economics to understand that those who hold one-quarter of the pie will not go quietly nor surrender their share; but in the end, will suppress any and all institutional and constitutional attempts at curbing that economic control.
Showdown
So the battle lines are drawn! With a one-week ultimatum, delivered by a Revolutionary Council of over twenty groups to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, a decision has to be made and sides taken. After a despicable display of brute force by the Armed Forces resulted in the murder of 30 Egyptians, two weeks ago, the populace lost its patience and its trust. Demanding the Army relinquish power in a six months span starting this week, the Council demanded "a commitment by the end of the week or else."
The days ahead bring a harbinger of cold and snow to the Northeast US and unwanted, potentially violent heat to the banks of the Nile.
Amr Khalifa - With an attentive ear and the instructive eye of a microscope, I will keep you informed.
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